A New Credible Centrist Party - How?

In the last post, I pointed out that research suggests the vast majority of UK voters regard themselves as being Centrist, and asked three questions:

• Why isn’t there a proper Centrist party that Centrists can vote FOR? 
• What has happened to the LibDems? 
• What would be needed to create a new credible Centrist party?

All three questions are answered by the combination of factors remarkably similar to the battle between VHS and Betamax video tapes in the 1970s and 1980s:

• The ‘First Past The Post” voting system (FPTP) used in the UK to elect MPs and in many other party-based elections.  There is only one winner.  Just like VHS beat Betamax.
• The strength of the political party brands.  Labour and Conservatives have achieved a great loyalty of supporters
• The ongoing marketing spend by Labour and Conservatives compared to other parties
• The strength of the local supporters groups.  Knocking on doors and all the traditional forms of promotion are still very valuable, alongside modern social media campaigns
• The resulting belief that voters have as to who has a realistic chance of winning, and ether voting for their preference or voting against the party they fear

There are people campaigning for a change from FPTP to some form of PR (Proportional representation), such as is used for the election of MEPs.  Do you know who your MEPs are for your region?  No?   One of the reasons why change was ruled out in the UK's  2011 Alternative Vote referendum.  Such  a low level of support for change from FPTP that change is effectively off the agenda for the foreseeable future. .


PARTY EXPENDITURE

Let’s look at a recent year’s expenditure for the national UK parties, for 2014:

Conservatives	£36.9m
Labour	£35.3m
LibDems	£  8.9m
UKIP	£  6.7m
Green Party	£  1.7m

2014 was not a General Election year, and these figures are not adjusted for that extra expenditure on the General Election campaigns.  However, the overall picture would remain basically the same:

• Labour and Conservatives are in a different league, spending a similar amount
• The LibDems are simply not spending enough to compete
• Likewise UKIP and the Green Party are also not spending enough

LOCAL CAMPAIGN GROUPS

All the parties have strong local groups of supporters, at the Conservative Club and equivalent premises.  This is important for two reasons:

• The national parties stand candidates in local elections
• Local people are the people who deliver leaflets, knock on doors and generally carry out the traditional forms of promotion.  That is all still valuable alongside modern social media promotion.

Furthermore, UK politics has resulted in an overall bag of policies that are centrist in nature.  People are far more likely to campaign for change than to retain the status quo.  This tends to mean the more vocal and enthusiastic campaigners are those towards the Left and Right, not the centre.

MEDIA COVERAGE

There can be sponsored coverage and advertising in the media.

But otherwise the broadcast, print and online media will tend to focus on the parties most likely to win.  Where there is a long list of candidates, only those from the 5 major parties will get any coverage (plus the national parties solely for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland). 

Other candidates are unlikely to get much more than a reluctant mention.  Especially difficult for a start-up party.

Coverage will also tend to favour the battle between Labour and Conservatives.  Voters are thereby encouraged to think in that way too.  Especially if they don't take a close look at politics, and just look at the final headlines before an election.


THE DECLINE OF THE LIBDEMS

The LibDems were created in 1988 by the merger of two parties that were themselves already in decline.

• The SDP Social Democratic Party was formed by just 4 MPs, and never reached a size to achieve the income needed to spend enough to be successful
• The Liberals were the main competition to the Conservatives in the 19th century.  That was until Labour was formed, and from the 1920s  became the dominant competitor.  Funding would have been a major issue

Liberal Prime Ministers include famous names like these.  The Liberals were a truly dominant force in those days:

• Gladstone
• Asquith
• Lloyd George

It was indeed the Liberals who laid the foundations of the Welfare State, including medical insurance, unemployment insurance, and old-age pensions.

But the funding of Labour by the unions put them ahead of the Liberals, whilst the Conservatives continued to be well funded.

SO HOW CAN A NEW CREDIBLE CENTRIST PARTY BE FORMED?

A new Centrist party would only be credible to the voting public if ALL the following 'aspects for success' were to be put in place, I believe:

1. A strong and charismatic Leader, preferably a senior MP with Cabinet experience.  This is a major factor in any General Election
2. Defection of between 50 and 100 “moderate” MPs from Labour’s SoftLeft and the Conservative party’s SoftRight, and possibly from the LibDems
3. Defection of local party groups, either with the premises or at new premises, and with or without their incumbent MP
4. Defection of a significant number of local authority councillors in each locality
5. Rapid creation of a national Party infrastructure comparable to Labour and Conservatives
6. Income and expenditure at least as large as Labour and Conservatives, but without this coming from a dominant source. Being beholden to a single patron or small group of patrons is not healthy, especially where their views start to diverge from those of the founding politicians.

One recent attempt at a new party has been Renew.  Sadly the initial publicity spurt did not achieve more than 1 of the first 5 points, and stumbled badly on the sixth.  The founder had to quit.

So it’s clear that putting all the key aspects of a successful party together is a massive challenge. But not necessarily impossible.  Knowing clearly what needs to be done, as above, makes it easier.

It was certainly something being seriously considered by moderate MPs in July 2016 when it looked like right-winger Angela Leadsom might beat Theresa May in the Tory leadership election.  This was as reported by Daniel Boffey and Toby Helm in the Guardian..

A move to set up a new party might be an initial vanguard of a small number of MPs, say 10-20.  But after the failure of the SDP, larger than their vanguard, and they would have to be very confident that others would actually follow.  It is a big jump to leave the relative security of the two big parties and their brand strength at the ballot box.

An anti-Brexit stance might just provide the impetus for enough MPs, local councillors and supporters to collectively make that jump.  And to raise the many millions of pounds from a range of sources that a new party would need.

Diagrammatically the rearrangement of the 5 main parties would look like this:

THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF VALUEISM

Whilst Labour has been able to focus around Socialism, and the Tories around Capitalism, there hasn't been a clear concept around which Centrists can gather. Valueism combines 'responsible capitalism' with the objectives of businesses adding value for the benefit of society as a whole.

In terms of objectives and policies, heart:head, Valueism is Left:SoftRight.  That is where the vast majority of voters place themselves, as proven by the support for New Labour in 1997.

Valueism is therefore potentially the concept around which the other six 'Aspects for Success' above can focus and collect.

With that n mind, which MPs will have the courage of their anti-Brexit convictions and get this new Centrist party up and running?